Portfolio Update December 2009

Portfolio Growth (YTD)	266.29%
Portfolio Value (Asset Value)	$78,341.69
Account Value (Owner's Equity)	$58,676.27
Outstanding Shares	184,370
Wittaya Wongwanich	88,362
Pramote Lumyai	27,698
Chaweng Wongwanich	38,179
Wikrom Srisamai	28,680
Wikran Lumyai	3,530
Price/Share	$0.4249
Capital Inflow	$1,500
Capital Outflow	$2,321.13
Fund Purchasing Fee	$0.45
Total Capital	$39,806.25
Wittaya Wongwanich	$10,250.00
Pramote Lumyai	$6,350.00
Chaweng Wongwanich	$15,000.00
Wikrom Srisamai	$10,100.00
Wikran Lumyai	$1,500.00
Asset Category
Cash Acct Balance	$0
Margin Acct Balance	$0
Margin Loan Balance	$19,665.42
Equity	$70,374.50
Fixed Income	$0
Commodity	$0
Real Estate	$0
Options	$7,967.19

The Times Square New Year's Eve Ball Timeline

Click the image for a large version

The 102-year history of the Times Square New Year's Even Ball is one filled with technology of 32,256 glimmering Philips LEDs and, of course, pretty shiny lights. See it all unfold in our historical timeline.

Edgar The Economist

"Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers (six if one went to Harvard)."

"He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass."

"The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers."

"If you have to forecast, forecast often."

By Edgar R. Fiedler, An American economist who served as Vice President of The Conference Board and as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy (1971 - 1975) during the presidencies of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford

Buy & Hold .... 10 Year of Nothing

Click to Enlarge

For those Long-term investor, You better see this 10-years Annualized Return on US Stock. What a disappointed day !! Lower than 1% and Let's me told you that History tends to repeat itself and those who not learn from history will suffer except you are very long term investor.

Remark: This graph doesn't take inflation/deflation and dividend yield into account so it may not be accurate.

Loss Momentum as Financial Fade

S&P 500 Weekly Momentum

S&P Financial Sector

With above 2 charts, we can see that S&P 500 Index loss momentum as Financial sector show fading momentum in rally. Well S&P still loss 62.54% from their 2007 peak; a lot of room to fill. Some economists expect Double Dip in 2nd half of 2010. Many opinions is spreading around now and Future is not us to see.

And at some point Fed will raise interest rate but not soon for sure. Some risk still on the commercial real estate market right now but current P/E of stock market still look promisingly cheap compared to highest number at the tech bubble in 2000; however, you must be more selective and cautious as some downside still remain.

We know sure things that are the Fed won't leave US in Recession for long, the Fed will continue pump up stimulus as much as they can afford and "TOO BIG TOO FAIL" scheme still have its day as long as Mr. Bernanke alive.

Potential Market Risk and Opportunity:

1. P/E look reasonable at fair value.
2. A Commercial Real Estate is A walking zombie now.
3. Fed will not raise Interest Rate at least 12-18 months.

Que Sera, Sera (Whatever Will Be, Will Be) ....................

Future is not us to see ....... Que Sera, Sera.

The Self-Organizing Economy

"In the last few years the concept of self-organizing systems - of complex system in which randomness and chaos seem spontaneously to evolve into unexpected order - has become an increasingly influential idea that links together researchers in many fields, from artificial intelligence to chemistry, from evolution to geology. For whatever reason, however, this movement has so far largely passed economic theory by. It is time to see how the new ideas can usefully be applied to that immensely complex, but indisputably self-organizing system we call the economy."

By Paul Krugman, An American economist, columnist and author

Beware A Wedge Pattern

There are dozens, perhaps even hundreds, of technical chart patterns. Most of them don't make much sense. The majority are nothing more than subjective lines drawn on a chart. Their track record at forecasting future price movements is no better than flipping a coin.

There is, however, one chart pattern We place a great deal of faith in. It's a terrific signal for when a trend is about to come to an end and reverse. The pattern is called a "wedge," and it is my favorite technical formation.

A wedge forms when a stock makes an extended move higher or lower, and when the distance between the highs and lows gets compressed. Whenever a stock or an index breaks out of these patterns, the ensuing move is often quick and large.

The psychology driving the wedge has something to do with the anxiety created as a trend gets extended. Folks who were early to catch the trend are nervously trying to protect profits. Latecomers - who need to jump on board or risk being left out of all the cocktail-party conversations - are worried about being the "greater fool." So, when the wedge breaks, and it looks like the trend has shifted, everyone rushes to get out. The recent action in the dollar is a perfect example...

This is an example of a falling-wedge pattern. The chart is in an extended decline. And you can see how the distance between the high and low points since May has continued to narrow. The wedge eventually comes to a point, and the chart has to break out of the pattern one way or another.

The best indicator to use to determine the direction of the break is the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator – which is displayed on the bottom chart.

The MACD helps determine the strength of a trend. If a stock is falling and the MACD is falling as well, the downtrend is strong and likely to continue. In the above dollar index chart, however, the MACD is actually moving higher while the dollar is falling. This "positive divergence" suggests the momentum behind the downtrend is weakening and the chart is likely to break out to the upside.

And that is exactly what happened...

Now, let's take a look at a recent chart of the S&P 500...

This is an example of a rising-wedge pattern, where the chart is in an extended uptrend. Notice how the index is moving up while the MACD is declining. This "negative divergence" is a warning sign the momentum behind the trend is weakening and traders should be on the lookout for a reversal.

There is still some room inside the wedge pattern for the S&P to continue higher. But the chart is nearing an apex. And if the negative divergence continues, the next big move will likely be to the downside.

Why Real Unemployment Rate Is 17.2 %

The U.S. unemployment numbers are out today, and most headlines will show that the U.S. unemployment rate in November was 10.0 percent, down from 10.2 percent in October. That number is depressingly large, but even that under-counts the true number of unemployed. For instance, it doesn’t count those people who don’t have a job and have given up looking for one, or those who have found marginal part-time work but still can’t make ends meet and are still looking for a full-time job.

The government keeps stats on all of these “marginally attached workers” and people “employed part time for economic reasons” (rather than by choice). If you add all of those people in, the total unemployment rate in the U.S. is 17.2 percent, compared to 12.6 percent a year ago. The only good news is that number is down from 17.5 percent in October.

To explain all of this, the folks at Mint prepared the video below. Despite its attempt to be lighthearted, it’s probably the most depressing cartoon you’ll see all month.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Technical analysis is more of an art than a science. In the short term, investor psychology does more to move stock prices than does balance sheets or income statements. And there's no better way to measure psychology – and therefore gauge the short-term direction of stock prices – than through technical analysis.

A 52-week chart of the S&P 500 along with the Bollinger Bands

The blue lines are the "upper" and "lower" Bollinger Bands.

You'll notice that almost all data points fall within these bands. In the rare event that a stock price moves outside of the bands, it nearly always reverses immediately and comes back inside. Short-term traders can make quick, counter-trend trades whenever a stock moves above or below the bands. Stocks cycle through periods of high volatility followed by periods of low volatility. As Bollinger Bands expand and contract, they provide clues as to which part of the cycle a stock is about to enter.

The green lines in the chart above mark periods of contracting volatility. The red lines indicate periods of expanding volatility.

When volatility is contracting, the stock is building up energy for its next big move. The Bollinger Bands don't tell you which direction the stock is headed, but as the bands pinch closer together, they're warning a large move is on the way.

This is the best time to be a buyer of options. Call and put options are relatively cheap because the implied volatility is so low.

As volatility expands, the stock is using up the stored energy. When the Bollinger Bands spread abnormally far apart, they're warning the stock is headed for a period of consolidation.

This is the best time to be a seller of options. Calls and puts are relatively expensive because the implied volatility is so high.

Acquire One Heart

"When we know how to read our own hearts, we acquire wisdom of the hearts of others."

By Denis Diderot, A French philosopher, art critic and writer

Portfolio Update November 2009

Portfolio Growth (YTD)	236.46%
Portfolio Value (Asset Value)	$70,460.18
Account Value (Owner's Equity)	$52,772.19
Outstanding Shares	180,527
Wittaya Wongwanich	88,362
Pramote Lumyai	27,698
Chaweng Wongwanich	38,179
Wikrom Srisamai	28,680
Price/Share	$0.3903
Capital Inflow	$0
Capital Outflow	$150
Fund Purchasing Fee	$0
Total Capital	$40,715.49
Wittaya Wongwanich	$10,250.00
Pramote Lumyai	$6,350.00
Chaweng Wongwanich	$15,000.00
Wikrom Srisamai	$10,100.00
Asset Category
Cash Acct Balance	$0
Margin Acct Balance	$0
Margin Loan Balance	$17,687.99
Equity	$63,779.50
Fixed Income	$0
Commodity	$0
Real Estate	$0
Options	$6,680.68

Is Global Warming A Hoax ?

Recently, a hacker leaked thousands of emails and documents from the University of East Anglia’s (UEA) Hadley Climate Research Unit which point toward Global Warming being a hoax. Find out Here

3 Essence of Achievement

"The three great essentials to achieve anything worth while are, first, hard work; second, stick-to-itiveness; third, common sense".

Thomas A. Edison, An American inventor, scientist and businessman who developed many devices that greatly influenced life around the world, including the phonograph, the motion picture camera, and a long-lasting, practical electric light bulb.

Micro Solar !! What About A Nano Solar ?

These are the new solar cells developed at Sandia National Laboratories, same lab that brought us the nuclear bomb and many other wonderful inventions. The cells are made of crystalline silicon, which means that they can produce the same energy as most standard solar cells, even while they are 10 times thinner. How much? They can get 14.9 percent solar-to-electricity power conversion efficiency at only 14 to 20 micrometers thickness. By comparison, a human hair is 70 micrometers thick.

As a result of their thickness and overall size, the Sandia Labs' solar cells can be attached to any flexible surface, including cloth. In other words: These things have the potential to turn your jacket or underpants into a giant walking power source. Or a small one. That depends on you.

Watch Out !! Volatility Index

S&P 500 and VIX Index from 1991 - 2009 (Click to Enlarge)

The Volatility Index is a measurement of fear in the marketplace so it is often referred to as the market's "fear gauge". When the VIX is high and rising, investors are scared and traders are bearish. A low and declining VIX indicates strong bullish sentiment and complacency among traders.

The VIX is a good contrary indicator, and it does help warn investors when the market is at extreme levels. But it's not of much use when stocks are range-bound. Normally, VIX Index will be in 10 - 30 range; If VIX is more than 25 mean Market is Fear. On the other hands, If VIX less than 15 mean Market is Confident.

Wise Know None

"It is better to speak wisdom foolishly, like the saints, rather than to speak folly wisely, like the dons."

By G.K. Chesterton, One of the most influential English writers of the 20th century

Stop the Insanity

Albert Einstein supposedly once defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Immune to Einstein's logic, Washington politicians are considering a second stimulus package within a year, when only 25% of the currently authorized $787 billion of stimulus funds have been spent.

The government's short-term stimulus approach to job creation over the last two years

1. In February 2008 Washington passed a $170 billion stimulus in the form of the Economic Stimulus Act.
2. In July 2008 Washington passed a $345 billion stimulus in the form of the Housing & Economic Recovery Act.
3. In February 2009 Washington passed a $787 billion stimulus in the form of the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act.
4. In March 2009 Washington passed a $410 billion omnibus bill, which included $12 billion in pork barrel stimulus spending for 9,000 earmarked projects.

Since the first authorization of these four stimulus packages, the national debt has increased by $2.9 trillion while the unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high before backing off slightly to 10%. It's time to try a real plan for real job creation, starting with the goal of a balanced budget. From 1995 to 1998 federal spending rose by an average of 2.9% per year, the lowest increase since the 1920s. We can apply the same principles that worked at that time to create jobs and balanced budgets. The principles are smaller government, lower spending, lower interest rates and less debt.

Step We Should Take:

The 1st step we should take is to allow workers and employers to keep more of their hard-earned money through an immediate, two-year 50% reduction of the payroll tax. This step would immediately boost the take-home pay of every worker and dramatically free up cash for every employer to hire and invest. This tax relief could be paid for by redirecting unspent stimulus funds.

Second, we should allow small businesses to deduct 100% of new-equipment expenses to help them invest in more-productive technologies, which would in turn boost economic activity where it is needed most.

Third, in a globalizing economy we must find ways for America to be the best place for anyone to invest in and start a business. That begins with reducing the tax burden on businesses. Ireland's business tax rate is 12.5%, while ours is almost three times that and is the second highest in the world. Since adopting this 12.5% rate 15 years ago, Ireland has taken its per capita income from the second lowest in the European Union to the second highest.

Fourth, to encourage investment, we should match the Chinese rate of tax on capital gains. That rate is zero.

Fifth, we should abolish the death tax. This tax punishes Americans for working, saving and creating wealth--exactly the opposite of what we need to encourage economic growth. Repealing the death tax would create hundreds of thousands of new jobs.

Finally, we need to develop more of America's vast domestic energy resources, which can generate millions of new jobs and billions in new tax revenues here at home largely without having to spend any federal dollars.

The choice couldn't be clearer: We can either continue down the same path of big government stimulus and hope for a different result, or we can get back to balancing the budget and reducing taxes on small businesses and entrepreneurs to reward job creation, work, savings and investment. Politicians can afford to be insane; taxpayers cannot.

Soros Mind

"I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong... I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes. I very often used to get backaches due to the fact that I was wrong. Whenever you are wrong you have to fight or flight. When I make the decision, the backache goes away."

By George Soros, A Hungarian-American currency speculator, stock investor, businessman, philanthropist, and political activist

Portfolio Update October 2009

Portfolio Growth (YTD)	203.62%
Portfolio Value (Asset Value)	$63,574.75
Account Value (Owner's Equity)	$50,588.67
Outstanding Shares	180,527
Wittaya Wongwanich	88,362
Pramote Lumyai	27,698
Chaweng Wongwanich	38,179
Wikrom Srisamai	28,680
Price/Share	$0.3522
Capital Inflow	$10,100
Capital Outflow	$250
Fund Purchasing Fee	$3.03
Total Capital	$40,961.40
Wittaya Wongwanich	$10,250.00
Pramote Lumyai	$6,350.00
Chaweng Wongwanich	$15,000.00
Wikrom Srisamai	$10,100.00
Asset Category
Cash Acct Balance	$0
Margin Acct Balance	$0
Margin Loan Balance	$12,986.08
Equity	$56,701.00
Fixed Income	$0
Commodity	$0
Real Estate	$0
Options	$6,873.75

Your Boss Power

"Most bosses know instinctively that their power depends more on employee's compliance than on threats or sanctions."

By Fernanda Bartolme, the author of Harvard Business Review

Predicting The Future

FYE ONLY HERE EXPECTED P/E IN OUR FUTURE

CLICK TO ENLARGE

US government manipulate stock market ?

Manipulating Market

Whether Federal Reserve and U.S. Government Rigged Stock Market, Pushing Market Cap up $6+Trillion since Mid-March. Only Logical Conclusion as to Why Market Soared, While Economy Faltered and Traditional Sources of Capital Remained Neutral. The most positive economic development in 2009 was the stock market rally. Since the middle of March, the market cap of all U.S. stocks has soared more than $6 trillion. The wealth effect of rising stock prices soothed the nerves and boosted the net worth of the half of Americans who own stock.

We cannot identify the source of the new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast. Historically, the market cap has risen about 10 times the amount of net new cash invested in equities. For the most part, the roughly $600 billion of net new cash since March needed to boost the market cap $6 trillion did not come from the traditional players that provided money in the past

Retail investors through funds. Retail investors have hardly bought any U.S. equities through funds. U.S. equity funds and ETFs have received only $20 billion since the start of April. Meanwhile, bond funds and ETFs have received a record $355 billion.

Foreign investors. Foreign investors have provided some buying power, purchasing $109 billion in U.S. stocks from April through October. But foreign purchases may have slowed in November and December because the U.S. dollar was weakening last fall.

Hedge funds. We have no way to track in real time what hedge funds do, and they may well have shifted some assets into U.S. equities. But we doubt their buying power was enormous because they posted an outflow of $9 billion from April through November.

Pension funds. All the anecdotal evidence we have indicates that pension funds have not been making a huge asset allocation shift and have not moved more than about $100 billion from bonds and cash into U.S. equities since the rally began.

If the money to boost stock prices did not come from the traditional players, it must have come from somewhere else. We know that the U.S. government has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to support the auto industry, the housing market, and the banks and brokers. Why not support the stock market as well ?

As far as we know, it is not illegal for the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury to buy S&P 500 futures. Moreover, several officials have suggested the government and major banks could support stock prices. For example, former Fed board member Robert Heller opined in the Wall Street Journal in 1989, “Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole.

Think back to mid-March 2009. Nothing positive was happening, and investor sentiment was horrible. The Fed, the Treasury, and Wall Street were all trying to figure out how to prevent the financial system from collapsing. What if Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, and the head of one or more Wall Street firms decided that creating a stock market rally was the only way to rescue the economy?

One way to manipulate the stock market would be for the Fed or the Treasury to buy a nominal $60 to $70 billion of S&P 500 stock futures each month for as long as necessary. Depending on margin levels, as little as $5 billion to $15 billion per month was all that was necessary to lift the S&P 500 by 67%. Even $15 billion per month would have been peanuts compared to what was being doled out elsewhere.

This type of intervention could explain some of the unusual market action in recent months, with stock prices grinding higher on low volume even as companies sold huge amounts of new shares and retail investors stayed on the sidelines. Some market watchers have charted that virtually all of the market’s upside since mid-September has come from after-hours futures activity.

Hammer Me ... I'm OLED and I'm Strong

Samsung has been working to deliver flexible displays for cellphones that will be significantly thinner than current LCD screens and allow for new form factors. But a big question for electronics makers will be how sturdy are these flexible displays? There’s only one way to answer that question and that’s with a hammer.

A video clips shows what happens when you pound a flexible, 2.8-inch display that is about 20 micrometers thick. And the answer is nothing. There’s not a scratch on the OLED (organic light-emitting diode) display. In comparison, an LCD screen shatters when it is hit.

Samsung hasn’t disclosed when it plans to bring its flexible displays to market. But it is likely, the the first commercial products with flexible displays will debut around the same time.

Source by GadgetLab

Synthetics Positioning

Traders can all agree that synthetics are also combinations of options and/or stock that replicate some other position.

For example, buying stock and selling a covered call is synthetically equivalent to a naked short put. Buying stock and buying a protective put is equivalent to buying a long call. Buying a call and selling a put is equivalent to buying stock. You may already understand synthetic relationships, and if you’re into “book learning,” you might realize that there ain’t no arbs any more. You may have relegated synthetics into the “thanks, but no thanks” category.

Let’s start with the most basic trade of all, buying stock. Say you buy 100 shares of XYZ stock for $120 per share. The total value of that stock is $12,000. In a regular margin account, you’d need at least $6,000 of available dollars to put on that position. And if you don’t have the cash in your account to cover the $12K, you’ll have to borrow $6,000 from your broker. Even if you do have the cash, you’ll stop earning interest on that money because you spent it buying the stock.

Now let’s look at synthetic long stock, which is a long call and a short put at the same strike price and the same expiration and has a risk/reward profile just like long stock itself. Don’t believe me? Load it up as a simulated trade on the Analyze page and see for yourself. You can buy the March 120 call for $2.25 and sell the March 120 put for $1.75 and make money if XYZ goes up, and lose money if XYZ goes down. But why would you want to do this?

First, you bought the call and sold the put (known as buying the “combo”) for a $0.50 debit. Not including commissions, $50 came out of your cash balance. With the stock trade? $12,000. You’re either not borrowing money, or you’re still earning interest on that cash. Second, although you know that Reg-T (Regular Trading) margin requirements won’t let you have the same risk exposure as $12,000 worth of stock and hold only $50 in your account, the margin requirement for the combo is less. The margin on the combo is the margin on the short put, which in this case is 20% of the underlying stock value minus any out-of-the-money amount. That comes to $2,400.

So, $50 versus $12,000 cash. And $2,400 versus $6,000 margin requirement. The combo is 2-for-2 so far. But the commission on the combo is two option orders, which in this case would be about $5.90, compared to $5.00 to buy the stock. And the combo won’t receive any dividends that the stock might pay. If the combo is now 2-for-4, how do you weigh the pros and cons? The commissions on the combo trade can be much higher, depending on your commission structure. But as a percentage of the risk of the position, the commissions represent a small fraction of the risk and potential reward you’re getting. In this case, commissions aren’t likely to make or break the trade.

And dividends? They’re nice because they can offset the interest expense when you buy the stock. But you have to hold it through the ex-dividend date, which you may or may not want to do, and the interest you are charged is often greater than the dividend you might get.

In a purely academic world, there’s no financial benefit to trading the combo over the stock. That’s true, but only in the academic world are every trader’s borrowing and lending rates equal. In the hyper-real world of trading, your borrowing rates as a retail trader are typically much higher than a market maker’s rates. The combo is priced in the open market, based largely on the market maker’s rates.

That’s the rate you would be paying if you buy the combo. But your borrowing rate as a retail trader is a broker call. In the XYZ example, your interest cost if you buy the combo is that $0.50 debit. But if broker call is 8%, for example, and you hold the stock for three months, you would pay $240 in interest. In this case, the combo would make more financial sense.

Business Cycle Info

As earning is up, Growth stocks P/E increase because their Price increase more than earning while Cyclical stocks (Value) P/E decrease since their price increase less than their earning. This statement will converse as we going to business downturn.

Portfolio Update September 2009

Portfolio Growth (YTD)	232.15%
Portfolio Value (Asset Value)	$59,457.71
Account Value (Owner's Equity)	$48,623.05
Outstanding Shares	154,314
Wittaya Wongwanich	88,362
Pramote Lumyai	27,698
Chaweng Wongwanich	38,179
Price/Share	$0.3853
Capital Inflow	$10,000
Capital Outflow	$0
Fund Purchasing Fee	$3
Total Capital	$31,600.00
Wittaya Wongwanich	$10,250.00
Pramote Lumyai	$6,350.00
Chaweng Wongwanich	$15,000.00
Asset Category
Cash Acct Balance	$0
Margin Acct Balance	$0
Margin Loan Balance	($10,834.66)
Equity	$54,573.00
Fixed Income	$0
Commodity	$0
Real Estate	$0
Options	$4,884.71

What Poor Charlie Teach Us

An Investing Principles Checklist from Poor Charlie’s Almanack

Risk – All investment evaluations should begin by measuring risk, especially reputational

1. Incorporate an appropriate margin of safety.
2. Avoid dealing with people of questionable character.
3. Insist upon proper compensation for risk assumed.
4. Always beware of inflation and interest rate exposures.
5. Avoid big mistakes; shun permanent capital loss.

Independence – “Only in fairy tales are emperors told they are naked”

1. Objectivity and rationality require independence of thought.
2. Remember that just because other people agree or disagree with you doesn’t make you right or wrong – the only thing that matters is the correctness of your analysis and judgment.
3. Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean (merely average performance).

Preparation – “The only way to win is to work, work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights”

1. Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day.
2. More important than the will to win is the will to prepare.
3. Develop fluency in mental models from the major academic disciplines.
4. If you want to get smart, the question you have to keep asking is “why, why, why?”

Intellectual humility – Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom

1. Stay within a well-defined circle of competence.
2. Identify and reconcile disconfirming evidence.
3. Resist the craving for false precision, false certainties, etc.
4. Above all, never fool yourself, and remember that you are the easiest person to fool.

Analytic rigor – Use of the scientific method and effective checklists minimizes errors and omissions

1. Determine value apart from price; progress apart from activity; wealth apart from size.
2. It is better to remember the obvious than to grasp the esoteric.
3. Be a business analyst, not a market, macroeconomic, or security analyst.
4. Consider totality of risk and effect; look always at potential second order and higher level impacts.
5. Think forwards and backwards – Invert, always invert.

Allocation – Proper allocation of capital is an investor’s number one job

1. Remember that highest and best use is always measured by the next best use (opportunity cost).
2. Good ideas are rare – when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet (allocate) heavily.
3. Don’t “fall in love” with an investment – be situation-dependent and opportunity-driven

Patience – Resist the natural human bias to act

1. “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world” (Einstein); never interrupt it unnecessarily.
2. Avoid unnecessary transactional taxes and frictional costs; never take action for its own sake.
3. Be alert for the arrival of luck.
4. Enjoy the process along with the proceeds, because the process is where you live.

Decisiveness – When proper circumstances present themselves, act with decisiveness and conviction

1. Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
2. Opportunity doesn’t come often, so seize it when it comes.
3. Opportunity meeting the prepared mind; that’s the game.

Change – Live with change and accept unremovable complexity

1. Recognize and adapt to the true nature of the world around you; don’t expect it to adapt to you.
2. Continually challenge and willingly amend your “best-loved ideas”.
3. Recognize reality even when you don’t like it – especially when you don’t like it.

Focus – Keep things simple and remember what you set out to do

1. Remember that reputation and integrity are your most valuable assets – and can be lost in a heartbeat.
2. Guard against the effects of hubris (arrogance) and boredom.
3. Don’t overlook the obvious by drowning in minutiae (the small details).
4. Be careful to exclude unneeded information or slop: “A small leak can sink a great ship”.
5. Face your big troubles; don’t sweep them under the rug.

In the end, it comes down to Charlie’s most basic guiding principles, his fundamental philosophy of life: Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

ABSOLUTE IMPACT of ARRA 2009

The Economic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009

What is the the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act (ARRA) ? Should we investors pay attention to it ? Yes Of course, the Federal Government always play an important part in any economy recovery stage. Such The Act of Congress was based largely on proposals made by President Barack Obama and was intended to provide a stimulus to the U.S. economy in the wake of the economic downturn; creating a job that will put Americans back to work and get U.S. economy back on track ASAP. The measures are nominally worth $787 billion.

The Act includes federal tax cuts, expansion of unemployment benefits and other social welfare provisions, and domestic spending in education, health care, and infrastructure, including the energy sector. You can see from a balloon diagram below.

The Act specifies that 37% of the package is to be devoted to tax cuts equaling $288 billion and $144 billion or 18% is allocated to state and local fiscal relief (more than 90% of the state aid is going to Medicaid and education). 45% or $357 billion is allocated to federal social programs and federal spending programs.

Recently, The Council of Economic Advisers has released a report on the economic impact of the stimulus package. The estimates, which have a lot of uncertainty attached to them, are that the recovery package "added roughly 2.3 percentage points to real GDP growth in the second quarter and is likely to add even more to growth in the third quarter"

Energy Tree – Sustainable Computing

We have entered the 21st century entering a dawn of being constantly connected and always on. We are now more efficient within our work and leisure but not within our use of power and energy. The EnergyTree will change the perception and view of how power is being used, implementing a complete system looking at device consumption, home consumption and long term sustainability. The EnergyTree is more innovative as it looks as energy consumption.

Tree Health – The Energy tree contains a real tree, which requires no conventional maintenance from the user. The trees health is decided upon how well the user utilizes energy. If the user is extremely efficient with there energy use the EnergyTree will give the tree the nutrients and water it needs to survive and flourish. If the User is inefficient with their energy consumption the EnergyTree will poison and malnourish the tree, eventually killing it. This benefits the user by giving them a long term overview of how much energy they are saving.

Device drain – Device drain is a more specific use of the product that both monitors and can control devices that are connected to the EnergyTree, allowing all devices connected by DeviceCheck to monitor energy consumption and can control and turn off all power to device when not needed, or when controlled from the EnergyTree control panel.

Household drain – This part of the EnergyTree monitors the house as a whole. Looking at all energy consumption from heating the house, to the efficiency of your recycling with the aid of EnergyTree Recycling bins. This will be linked to an online system that will calculate your household efficiency and give you green points in reward for an eco-friendly house.

Collector – Collector makes use of the community spirit in today’s web 2.0 online societies. The system will be online, and accessed via the touch screen of the EnergyTree. The collector is there to encourage people to recycle and take recycling to the depot to be processed. Once at the depot the collector will get extra green points. Although every person could take there own Re-Tree Bins, not everyone will want to and not every local government can afford to collect and sort the recycling as effective as lots of dedicated collectors.

A Rich

"A rich man is nothing but a poor man with money."

By W. C. Fields, An American comedian, actor, juggler and writer.

Apple and the Miracle M@C

Hello, I'm Mac I'm PC. A popular Mac vs. PC Ads you typically watch on TV. Apple Computer (AAPL) redefine the consumer electronics market with innovative products, from the way we listen to music with iPod to redefining cell phones with iPhone. Now, Apple has market cap of $150 billion with rising earning every single year.

In 2003, company announced their first handheld music player an iPod since then Apple become the Next Big Thing. iTunes store launched in 2004 and became one of the premier marketplaces for digital music. For god sake, I still remember the day that their stock trade at $60 price range in late 2006 before it shoot up to $180 in late 2008; 200% gain in 2 years. What's a incredible day !!! Sadly, Many investors missed that opportunity.

Steve Job introduce his iPhone in 2007

The question is Should we invest in Apple now? Is it too late? My simple answer is, "Yes but not yet." Here's why:

First, Apple thrives on innovation and managing its product cycles however Apple doesn't have any new blockbuster products on the immediate horizon coming, except rumors about their own netbook "tablet." Only that it's not enough for driving Apple's growth plus their stock price a little too high comparing to its book value.

Apple Rumor "iTablet" spread all over internet

Second, the volatility in share price caused by speculation over Steve Jobs' health makes stock a little risky. Company must less dependent to their beloved founder. What will be happen if Steve gone forever ? For us now, Steve Job is Apple.

Nevertheless, Apple Computer has an unique corporate culture; beautiful is everything. Many people consider Apple a design company with engineer. Definitely, Apple has current strength in consistent income stream; their new iPhone 3GS sold over 1 million in just 3 days and a 4% increase in Mac sale revenue from a year ago. These performance indicate that company slowly gain a bigger share of the computer market. Unfortunately, the future is not quite impressive for Apple. While the latest iPhone numbers are good, iPod sales are downed 7% year on year. Since company relies on a strong product cycle, without any highly-anticipated offerings on the horizon, We have to be skeptical of Apple's future prospects.

Three things that we would like to happen at Apple are More Focus and Competitive on its OS and computers, Less Focus on CEO Jobs and More Impressive Numbers on profit margin.

Steve on 10 Sept 2009 after his pancreas cancer surgery

Introducing the new iPod Nano with video camera