Sunday, September 13, 2009

Apple and the Miracle M@C

Hello, I'm Mac I'm PC. A popular Mac vs. PC Ads you typically watch on TV. Apple Computer (AAPL) redefine the consumer electronics market with innovative products, from the way we listen to music with iPod to redefining cell phones with iPhone. Now, Apple has market cap of $150 billion with rising earning every single year.

In 2003, company announced their first handheld music player an iPod since then Apple become the Next Big Thing. iTunes store launched in 2004 and became one of the premier marketplaces for digital music. For god sake, I still remember the day that their stock trade at $60 price range in late 2006 before it shoot up to $180 in late 2008; 200% gain in 2 years. What's a incredible day !!! Sadly, Many investors missed that opportunity.

Steve Job introduce his iPhone in 2007

The question is Should we invest in Apple now? Is it too late? My simple answer is, "Yes but not yet." Here's why:

First, Apple thrives on innovation and managing its product cycles however Apple doesn't have any new blockbuster products on the immediate horizon coming, except rumors about their own netbook "tablet." Only that it's not enough for driving Apple's growth plus their stock price a little too high comparing to its book value.

Apple Rumor "iTablet" spread all over internet

Second, the volatility in share price caused by speculation over Steve Jobs' health makes stock a little risky. Company must less dependent to their beloved founder. What will be happen if Steve gone forever ? For us now, Steve Job is Apple.

Nevertheless, Apple Computer has an unique corporate culture; beautiful is everything. Many people consider Apple a design company with engineer. Definitely, Apple has current strength in consistent income stream; their new iPhone 3GS sold over 1 million in just 3 days and a 4% increase in Mac sale revenue from a year ago. These performance indicate that company slowly gain a bigger share of the computer market. Unfortunately, the future is not quite impressive for Apple. While the latest iPhone numbers are good, iPod sales are downed 7% year on year. Since company relies on a strong product cycle, without any highly-anticipated offerings on the horizon, We have to be skeptical of Apple's future prospects.

Three things that we would like to happen at Apple are More Focus and Competitive on its OS and computers, Less Focus on CEO Jobs and More Impressive Numbers on profit margin.

Steve on 10 Sept 2009 after his pancreas cancer surgery
Introducing the new iPod Nano with video camera

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