Portfolio Update December 2009

Portfolio Growth (YTD)	266.29%
Portfolio Value (Asset Value)	$78,341.69
Account Value (Owner's Equity)	$58,676.27
Outstanding Shares	184,370
Wittaya Wongwanich	88,362
Pramote Lumyai	27,698
Chaweng Wongwanich	38,179
Wikrom Srisamai	28,680
Wikran Lumyai	3,530
Price/Share	$0.4249
Capital Inflow	$1,500
Capital Outflow	$2,321.13
Fund Purchasing Fee	$0.45
Total Capital	$39,806.25
Wittaya Wongwanich	$10,250.00
Pramote Lumyai	$6,350.00
Chaweng Wongwanich	$15,000.00
Wikrom Srisamai	$10,100.00
Wikran Lumyai	$1,500.00
Asset Category
Cash Acct Balance	$0
Margin Acct Balance	$0
Margin Loan Balance	$19,665.42
Equity	$70,374.50
Fixed Income	$0
Commodity	$0
Real Estate	$0
Options	$7,967.19

The Times Square New Year's Eve Ball Timeline

Click the image for a large version

The 102-year history of the Times Square New Year's Even Ball is one filled with technology of 32,256 glimmering Philips LEDs and, of course, pretty shiny lights. See it all unfold in our historical timeline.

Edgar The Economist

"Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers (six if one went to Harvard)."

"He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass."

"The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers."

"If you have to forecast, forecast often."

By Edgar R. Fiedler, An American economist who served as Vice President of The Conference Board and as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy (1971 - 1975) during the presidencies of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford

Buy & Hold .... 10 Year of Nothing

Click to Enlarge

For those Long-term investor, You better see this 10-years Annualized Return on US Stock. What a disappointed day !! Lower than 1% and Let's me told you that History tends to repeat itself and those who not learn from history will suffer except you are very long term investor.

Remark: This graph doesn't take inflation/deflation and dividend yield into account so it may not be accurate.

Loss Momentum as Financial Fade

S&P 500 Weekly Momentum

S&P Financial Sector

With above 2 charts, we can see that S&P 500 Index loss momentum as Financial sector show fading momentum in rally. Well S&P still loss 62.54% from their 2007 peak; a lot of room to fill. Some economists expect Double Dip in 2nd half of 2010. Many opinions is spreading around now and Future is not us to see.

And at some point Fed will raise interest rate but not soon for sure. Some risk still on the commercial real estate market right now but current P/E of stock market still look promisingly cheap compared to highest number at the tech bubble in 2000; however, you must be more selective and cautious as some downside still remain.

We know sure things that are the Fed won't leave US in Recession for long, the Fed will continue pump up stimulus as much as they can afford and "TOO BIG TOO FAIL" scheme still have its day as long as Mr. Bernanke alive.

Potential Market Risk and Opportunity:

1. P/E look reasonable at fair value.
2. A Commercial Real Estate is A walking zombie now.
3. Fed will not raise Interest Rate at least 12-18 months.

Que Sera, Sera (Whatever Will Be, Will Be) ....................

Future is not us to see ....... Que Sera, Sera.

The Self-Organizing Economy

"In the last few years the concept of self-organizing systems - of complex system in which randomness and chaos seem spontaneously to evolve into unexpected order - has become an increasingly influential idea that links together researchers in many fields, from artificial intelligence to chemistry, from evolution to geology. For whatever reason, however, this movement has so far largely passed economic theory by. It is time to see how the new ideas can usefully be applied to that immensely complex, but indisputably self-organizing system we call the economy."

By Paul Krugman, An American economist, columnist and author

Beware A Wedge Pattern

There are dozens, perhaps even hundreds, of technical chart patterns. Most of them don't make much sense. The majority are nothing more than subjective lines drawn on a chart. Their track record at forecasting future price movements is no better than flipping a coin.

There is, however, one chart pattern We place a great deal of faith in. It's a terrific signal for when a trend is about to come to an end and reverse. The pattern is called a "wedge," and it is my favorite technical formation.

A wedge forms when a stock makes an extended move higher or lower, and when the distance between the highs and lows gets compressed. Whenever a stock or an index breaks out of these patterns, the ensuing move is often quick and large.

The psychology driving the wedge has something to do with the anxiety created as a trend gets extended. Folks who were early to catch the trend are nervously trying to protect profits. Latecomers - who need to jump on board or risk being left out of all the cocktail-party conversations - are worried about being the "greater fool." So, when the wedge breaks, and it looks like the trend has shifted, everyone rushes to get out. The recent action in the dollar is a perfect example...

This is an example of a falling-wedge pattern. The chart is in an extended decline. And you can see how the distance between the high and low points since May has continued to narrow. The wedge eventually comes to a point, and the chart has to break out of the pattern one way or another.

The best indicator to use to determine the direction of the break is the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator – which is displayed on the bottom chart.

The MACD helps determine the strength of a trend. If a stock is falling and the MACD is falling as well, the downtrend is strong and likely to continue. In the above dollar index chart, however, the MACD is actually moving higher while the dollar is falling. This "positive divergence" suggests the momentum behind the downtrend is weakening and the chart is likely to break out to the upside.

And that is exactly what happened...

Now, let's take a look at a recent chart of the S&P 500...

This is an example of a rising-wedge pattern, where the chart is in an extended uptrend. Notice how the index is moving up while the MACD is declining. This "negative divergence" is a warning sign the momentum behind the trend is weakening and traders should be on the lookout for a reversal.

There is still some room inside the wedge pattern for the S&P to continue higher. But the chart is nearing an apex. And if the negative divergence continues, the next big move will likely be to the downside.

Why Real Unemployment Rate Is 17.2 %

The U.S. unemployment numbers are out today, and most headlines will show that the U.S. unemployment rate in November was 10.0 percent, down from 10.2 percent in October. That number is depressingly large, but even that under-counts the true number of unemployed. For instance, it doesn’t count those people who don’t have a job and have given up looking for one, or those who have found marginal part-time work but still can’t make ends meet and are still looking for a full-time job.

The government keeps stats on all of these “marginally attached workers” and people “employed part time for economic reasons” (rather than by choice). If you add all of those people in, the total unemployment rate in the U.S. is 17.2 percent, compared to 12.6 percent a year ago. The only good news is that number is down from 17.5 percent in October.

To explain all of this, the folks at Mint prepared the video below. Despite its attempt to be lighthearted, it’s probably the most depressing cartoon you’ll see all month.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Technical analysis is more of an art than a science. In the short term, investor psychology does more to move stock prices than does balance sheets or income statements. And there's no better way to measure psychology – and therefore gauge the short-term direction of stock prices – than through technical analysis.

A 52-week chart of the S&P 500 along with the Bollinger Bands

The blue lines are the "upper" and "lower" Bollinger Bands.

You'll notice that almost all data points fall within these bands. In the rare event that a stock price moves outside of the bands, it nearly always reverses immediately and comes back inside. Short-term traders can make quick, counter-trend trades whenever a stock moves above or below the bands. Stocks cycle through periods of high volatility followed by periods of low volatility. As Bollinger Bands expand and contract, they provide clues as to which part of the cycle a stock is about to enter.

The green lines in the chart above mark periods of contracting volatility. The red lines indicate periods of expanding volatility.

When volatility is contracting, the stock is building up energy for its next big move. The Bollinger Bands don't tell you which direction the stock is headed, but as the bands pinch closer together, they're warning a large move is on the way.

This is the best time to be a buyer of options. Call and put options are relatively cheap because the implied volatility is so low.

As volatility expands, the stock is using up the stored energy. When the Bollinger Bands spread abnormally far apart, they're warning the stock is headed for a period of consolidation.

This is the best time to be a seller of options. Calls and puts are relatively expensive because the implied volatility is so high.

Acquire One Heart

"When we know how to read our own hearts, we acquire wisdom of the hearts of others."

By Denis Diderot, A French philosopher, art critic and writer