Sunday, January 24, 2010

Intelligence Education What !!

"The difference between intelligence and an education is this-that intelligence will make you a good living".

Charles Franklin Kettering, An American inventor and the holder of 140 patents. He was a founder of Delco, and was head of research for General Motors for 27 years from 1920 to 1947.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Getting Tough on Wall Street

President Obama is now, finally, getting tough on Wall Street. Today he’s giving his support to two measures critically important for making sure the Street doesn’t relapse into another financial crisis
  1. Separating the functions of investment banking from commercial banking (basically, resurrecting the Depression-era Glass-Steagall Act) so investment banks can’t gamble with insured commerial deposits in order to scope of their risk-taking activities.
  2. Giving regulatory authorities power to limit the size of big banks so they don’t become “too big to fail,” as antitrust laws do with every other capitalist entity.
The president, for the first time, will throw his weight behind an approach long championed by Paul A. Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve and an adviser to the Obama administration. The proposal will put limits on bank size and prohibit commercial banks from trading for their own accounts — known as proprietary trading.

Only a handful of large banks would be the targets of the proposal, among them Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street trading house, became a commercial bank during this latest crisis, and it would presumably have to give up that status.

Mr. Volcker has been trying for weeks to drum up support — on Wall Street and in Washington — for restrictions similar to those passed in the Glass-Steagall Act in 1933. That law separated commercial banking and investment banking, so that the investment arm could no longer use a depositor’s money to purchase stocks, sometimes drawing money from a savings account, for example, without the depositor’s knowledge.

The 1929 stock market crash and subsequent Depression made a shambles of that practice. But Glass-Steagall was watered down over the years and revoked in 1999.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

The Shift In Sentiment

Reason to Sell Off Recently
  1. President Obama has signaled that a scaled back healthcare bill will be looked into.
  2. China posted a quarterly GDP of 10.7% on a year over year basis – This is too “hot” by any measure.
  3. The Obama administration is looking to present legislation that will severely reduce proprietary trading at major financial institutions.
  4. Initial Claims were 40,000 higher than expected this morning, showing that employment trends are not getting better
  5. Japan’s lending by companies has hit mutli-year lows. Business recovery is in jeopardy.
  6. Earnings from many companies in the U.S. are meeting and exceeding estimates, while revenues are inline.
  7. The Euro continues to lag against the U.S. dollar are a flight to safety continues.
  8. Bullish sentiment has been at over-heating levels, usually a contrary indicator.
  9. The risk trade has been off for the same time the U.S dollar is moving higher.
  10. Australia is talking about taxing some mining companies to bring in additional revenue.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Slate Again

Everyone has said that Apple's next event will occur on Tuesday, January 26th at the Yerba Buena Center.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Type of Stock & Option Order

Trailing stop limit. Market on close. Contingent orders. There are over 20 different order types available on the thinkorswim platform. Some are more complex than others, and you might believe that the more complex the order, the more “professional” or useful it is. Right? Well, sometimes yes. Sometimes no. The key is to understand how these orders work before you use them in live trading.

All orders, however complex, can be seen as variations on two basic themes: market and limit orders. A market order guarantees a fill but not a price. A limit order guarantees a price but not a fill. Period. The other 18 order types attempt to make your life a little easier, but they’re not meant to replace a real person monitoring positions. Let’s dive into the world of order types and learn how to manage them properly.

MARKET ORDER • With a market order, the broker is allowed to execute the order without regard to price or time. The broker will fill the order. But in exchange for that certainty, you have no idea what price you’ll get, or what time the order will be executed. In the world of electronic trading, the time until execution will likely be measured in milliseconds after you route the order. But the rule is that the broker isn’t held to anything but getting you a fill. Be warned: Unless you’re dealing with extremely liquid issues, such as QQQQ or SPY, market orders are like writing blank checks to the floor—rarely a good idea. A few other familiar order types that turn into market orders when they’re triggered include stops, trailing
stops, and market on close.

LIMIT ORDER • With a limit order, the broker can’t fill at a price that’s worse than your limit price. That is, you won’t pay more than your limit price when you’re buying, and you won’t sell lower than your limit price when you’re selling. That’s good because it gives you control over the price where you execute the order. But the downside is that you might not get filled if a market maker doesn’t want to take the other side of your order. A few other familiar order types that turn into limit orders when they’re triggered include stop limit, trailing stop limit, and limit on close.

The bottom line is, whether they’re market or limit, there is no order that guarantees both a fill and a price. You can have one or the other, but not both.


STOP ORDER
• Beyond the standard market and limit order, probably the most well-known is the stop order, aka “stop loss.” A stop order is used mainly to protect against an adverse move in the stock price, and can be either a buy stop (used if you have a short stock position) or a sell stop (used if you have a long stock position).

If I were long 100 shares of XYZ with a price of $50, I could enter a sell stop order at $48. The way it works is if XYZ drops to $48, the stop is triggered and routes a market order to sell 100 shares of XYZ. Because it’s a market order, there’s no guarantee of price, and if XYZ gaps below $48, the stop order will be triggered, but the price where I sell XYZ could be much lower than $48. An extension of the stop order is the stop limit order, which triggers a limit order when the stop price is hit. If I set a stop limit order for my 100 shares of XYZ with a $48 stop and a $48 limit, and XYZ drops below $48, the limit order to sell the 100 shares at $48 will be routed. Because it’s a limit order, there’s no guarantee I’ll be filled, and XYZ could keep dropping and dropping. In practice, I might set the limit part a bit away from the stop order. With a stop price of $48, I might make the limit price $47.90. That way, I have a somewhat better chance of getting filled on my limit order when the stop is triggered. While stops and stop limits can reduce losses, they can’t really protect profits if the stock goes up and comes back down. That’s where trailing stops come in.

TRAILING STOP ORDER • Trailing stop orders behave like a ratchet: they move in one direction but not the other. The stop price is set at a certain number of pennies or points away from the current stock price. As the stock moves higher, so does the trailing stop, following the price of the stock but staying the same number of pennies away. Once the trailing stop ratchets up, it doesn’t ratchet back down if the stock moves down. If I set a trailing stop of 0.20 for my 100 shares of XYZ at $50, the initial stop is set at $49.80. If XYZ drops that 0.20 to $49.80, the trailing stop is triggered and a market order to sell the 100 shares of XYZ gets routed. But if XYZ goes up to $51, the trailing stop follows it higher. The 0.20 trailing stop will be set at $50.80. If XYZ goes higher still to $51.50, the trailing stop moves up to $51.30, which is 0.20 away from the stock price. Now, if XYZ drops to $51.30, the trailing stop is activated and routes a market order. In this way, a trailing stop can help protect profits.


CONDITIONAL ORDER • Conditional orders have to be triggered by an event before the order is actually routed: a stock hits a certain price, or volatility reaches a certain level, or a study gets to some value. Also known as contingency orders, these can be particularly useful when you’re trading options as a stock replacement.

Let me elaborate. If you’re selling a put vertical because you think the stock is going higher (or at least not down very much), then the speculation is really on the stock price itself. Sure, the vertical might meet your risk and potential reward criteria, but whether the trade makes money or not depends mainly on the stock price. So, it would stand to reason that you might want to exit the trade based on the price of the stock, particularly if the stock moves against you. If you are short an out-of-the-money put vertical on XYZ, which is trading at $50, you could enter a conditional order to buy that put spread back if XYZ drops to $47. You can choose for that conditional order to route a limit order or a market order when that condition is met. You can have the conditional order route a limit order that is a certain price, or a certain number of pennies above or below the spread’s average price.

Used properly, that can help you get the order filled. Now, suppose you want to give yourself a little more room when using a conditional order to close your defined risk, positive-time-decay trades if the stock starts to move against you. If you set a conditional order based on the stock price, it might get triggered at any time after you put the trade on, whether far from or close to expiration. This could all depend on the type of whipsawing action often seen in stocks (as opposed to true reversals), and it can take you out of trades prematurely. If the move happens far from expiration, you might still have some time for the stock to move back your way. Close to expiration, that’s less likely. So, you may want to enhance your conditional order strategy by placing a trading alert to notify you when the stock is getting close to your exit point. Being alerted when the stock is 0.50 away from that price gives you a chance to check your account, your positions, and the stock. It gives you time to think about the trade clearly, and exit it with perhaps a better plan. Of course, that all assumes that you haven’t done too many of these in the first place. How many risk management articles have we printed in this space? If the position is too big for your account, giving a trade “more room” can eventually kill you. That’s why prudent position sizing is so important.

OCO AND BRACKET ORDER • Beyond the specific order types are the OCOs and first-triggers orders, which are combinations of different limit, market, stop, trailing stop, and so on orders. OCO stands for “one cancels other,” and means that if one of the orders in the group is filled, the others will be canceled.

Bracket orders are what you call a limit order and stop order that are combined in an OCO group. You can create an order to buy 100 shares of stock, and simultaneously create an OCO that will trigger when you execute the buy. That’s what we call a “first triggers OCO,” because the execution of the first order (the buy) triggers that OCO with the limit order to sell and the sell stop. The OCO contains a limit order to sell the shares at a higher price to take a profit, and a stop order to sell them at a lower price to limit losses. If the limit order to sell is filled, it cancels the stop order. If the stop order is filled, it cancels the limit order.

Often, the bracket orders are set to GTC if the position isn’t being day traded. GTC, or “good ’til cancelled,” is an order that doesn’t expire at the end of the day as “DAY” orders do, but rather when it is either filled or you cancel it. Active day traders sometimes use bracket orders if they have to step away from their trading screens or if they’re trading multiple stocks or futures and can’t concentrate on all of them all the time.


FIRST TRIGGERS ORDERS
• First triggers sequence and first triggers orders all work a bit like the first triggers OCO. The execution of the first order in the list either sends all the other orders in at once, or sends them sequentially: If the first is executed, it routes the second, and if the second is executed, it routes the third, etc. First triggers sequence orders can be used when you’re managing a long stock plus short covered call, for example. As time passes and if the stock doesn’t move higher, the short call drops in value. You may want to have an order in that would buy that short call back. Then, if the order to buy the short call back is filled, it routes a stop-loss order for the long stock position. Or maybe it routes an order to sell a call at either a different expiration or different strike price.

LOC OR MOC ORDER • LOC and MOC stand for limit on close and market on close. Simply, they route either a limit or a market order near the close of trading, approximately two minutes before. These orders were created mainly for institutional traders and fund managers who needed to execute orders close to the end-of-day settlement price for accounting purposes. Retail traders (that’s you) can use them, but they’re not really that useful. There’s no magic to the price of a stock, index, or option closer or further away from the close of trading. A trade that meets your criteria can pop up anytime during trading hours. When you spot one, don’t use an LOC or MOC and risk having a good trade get away from you between now and the close. Just trade it.

Friday, January 8, 2010

Bulletin of Economy 2010 Strategy

The 2010 Outlooks

Strategists, on average, see the S&P 500 gaining 9.5% to 1,222 and earning $76 per share in 2010
  • Despite the view that the S&P 500 will gain over 9%, the consensus is to "underweight" or "benchmark" US equities
  • Oil will rally slightly to $80
  • Gold will rally to $1,213
  • The Dollar vs the Euro will end 2010 at 1.45
  • The US economy is expected to grow 3.1%
  • The FRB will not hike interest rates until at least mid-2010
Themes for 2010:
  1. Government balance sheet risk and Rising taxation
  2. Alternative yield strategies
  3. Financial sector rehabilitation
  4. Corporate cash flow beneficiaries
  5. Rising global growth and Emerging market consumers
  6. Commodity price inflation
  7. Return of active management
  8. Alternative energy
  9. Asia & Emerging-Market consumer (large-cap EM financial and consumer related stocks & US and Japanese multinationals)
  10. Tightening plays as markets tighten by raising the price of commodities, the yield of gov't bonds, value of EM currencies: long global banks (including Japan) and large cap energy stocks
  11. Hedge tail risks such as bubbles in China and gold, a double-dip, trade protectionism or a US dollar crisis by buying puts on volatility
  12. Buy US companies that generate a high percentage of sales from BRICS
  13. Invest in companies with high operating leverage that currently run at the bottom of their margin cycles
  14. Buy stocks high Sharpe ratio
  15. Looking ahead to 2H: free cash flow and dividend growth
  16. Significant recovery upside but also downside risks: best of both worlds high-quality cheap stocks on normalized earnings
  17. M&A up cycle beginning: buy aquisition targets
  18. Rising rates: long brokers and short REITs
  19. Stronger US dollar: long retailers and short energy
  20. Overweight US versus Emerging Markets: long US financials and short EM financials
  21. Flows follow: stay with value over growth
  22. Uncertainty to decline: short S&P 500
  23. 12m forward volatility
  24. Stock rally to continue in a low rate world
  25. Buy cyclicals now, own defensives later in the year
  26. S&P 500 to rally to 1,300 in 1H then fall to 1,250 by year-end
  27. Forecast Fed target rate unchanged until 2012

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Dhamma for Living

"The Gift of Truth Excels all other Gifts".

By Fayan Wenyi, The Master of Zen

Monday, January 4, 2010

Market Efficient Really ?

Robert Shiller concluded from a longer history of stock market fluctuations that stock prices show far “too much variability” to be explained by an efficient-market theory of pricing, and that one must look to behavioral considerations and to crowd psychology to explain the actual process of price determination in the stock market.

What do we mean by saying markets are efficient ?
  1. Markets can be efficient even if they sometimes make egregious errors in valuation. Markets can be efficient even if stock prices exhibit greater volatility than can apparently be explained by fundamentals such as earnings and dividends.
  2. Economists view markets as amazingly successful devices for reflecting new info rapidly and, for the most part, accurately. Above all, we believe that financial markets are efficient because they don’t allow investors to earn above average returns without accepting above-average risks.
  3. No one can consistently predict either the direction of the stock market or the relative attractiveness of individual stocks and thus no one can consistently obtain better overall returns than the market. And while there are undoubtedly profitable trading opportunities that occasionally appear, there are quickly wiped out once they become known. No one person or institution has yet to produce a long-term, consistent record of finding money-making, risk-adjusted individual stock-trading opportunities, particularly if they pay taxes and incur transactions costs.

Ideal iSlate ... This is What We Want

Apple tablet is coming to the light of day in 2010. But there is one more thing. Apple tablet device will be named iSlate. That would be in line with earlier connections of the 'slate' term to the elusive tablet computer. It might come with OLED as well.

In August 2008, a 52-page patent filed by Apple described how a touchscreen tablet might work. The patent described a device that would be able to detect simultaneous touches and gestures from two hands. But that hardly sounds like it would be surprising.

A new patent application that was appeared this week in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office’s database. Filed by Apple, the patent application is titled “Keystroke tactility arrangement on a smooth touch surface.” It describes a tactile-feedback mechanism for a touch surface keyboard to create physical bumps for the user to feel the keys.

Can't wait ? Get one of these ........ Super Duper Big iPod Touch

Saturday, January 2, 2010

You Are What You Think

"It's not your salary that makes you rich, it's your spending habits."

By Charles A. Jaffe, A Belarusian-American chess master, of virtually Grandmaster strength

Friday, January 1, 2010

Happy New Year 2010 to All

May the New Year bring these Wishes to you all ...

Warmth of love, comfort of home
Joy from your children
Company and support of family & friends

A caring heart that accepts & treats all human beings equally
Enrichment of knowledge and richness of diversity
Courage to seek & speak the truth even if it means standing alone
Hopes and dreams of a just world and the desire to make it happen

A light to guide your path
Helping hands to strengthen unity
Serenity and peace within your mind, heart & soul
Food for thought & soul
A hand to hold

--- Many Thanks for all supports ---